Ohio: Clinton Has Edge With Women in Ohio

Just as John Kerry's bid for the White House in the 2004 general election ended in Ohio, so too may the state stymie Hillary Clinton if she does not pull out a decisive victory on March 4.

Based on interviews conducted for this story and statewide polls, the biggest fault lines in Ohio are age and gender, with Democratic women and party voters over age 55 showing strong support for Clinton over Barack Obama.

In a survey sponsored by several urban TV stations in Ohio, Clinton was preferred over Obama 52 percent to 43 percent. The decisive factors, the poll found, were age and sex.

The SurveyUSA poll conducted over President's Day weekend showed that Clinton was more popular among seniors and women. Obama received stronger support from men, but he polled only slightly better among younger voters.

The top issues for voters surveyed were the economy, followed by health care and the war in Iraq.

These results mirrored concerns documented by a study of Ohio women commissioned by the pro-Clinton EMILY's List organization, which collects campaign contributions for female Democratic candidates who support abortion rights. In that survey, 53 percent of Ohio women said jobs and the economy were their top concerns, and health care was a main issue for 45 percent. The war was the most important to 38 percent.

"We are looking for a president who's going to restore our personal freedoms and economic security, which right now we don't feel we have in Ohio," said Diane Dodge, a Cleveland organizer for the National Organization of Women.

A Rasmussen poll released Feb. 22 showed Clinton's lead in Ohio had narrowed to eight percentage points, down from 14 points in the past week.

Classically mid-Western, the citizens of the Buckeye State tend to be blue collar and are predominantly white, at 84 percent of state's population of 11.5 million. The state is built on a post-World War II economy of steel and heavy manufacturing and has more than 730,000 union members. Organized labor figures large in its politics, and the recent endorsements of Obama by the Service Employees International Union and the Teamsters are a boost to his campaign.

As Clinton tries to recover from a string of primary losses to Obama, Ohio may prove to be a battleground in other respects. Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland was elected in 2006 against former Secretary of State Ken Blackwell, an African American.

Prior to the gubernatorial election that year, a New York Times/CBS poll showed that Democrats were scoring victories with plans to raise the minimum wage in the Republican-leaning state.

Then and now, polls indicate that jobs and health care are among Ohioans' top concerns.

"Up in Cleveland, LTV Steel went under. Down in southern Ohio with Weirton Steel, you saw the same thing. With all these buyouts, these were people who thought they'd retire with better benefits than they ended up having because of this Chapter 11," said Kathy Kelley, a spokeswoman for the Ohio branch of the AARP. "Some people who retired with health care benefits no longer have those benefits, so that is really worrying for middle-aged and older Ohioans."

A 2007 study by the Institute for Women's Policy Research (IWPR) indicated that older women are especially challenged in the state's economy. Only one in three women 65 and older receives a pension, versus 56 percent of men. Women working in that age bracket earn on the average $12,663 a year, compared with men's $21,054. For minority women, the discrepancies are more severe. African American women average $10,634 a year, while Latinas earn $8,492.

"Any out-of-pocket costs are going to negatively impact women who have lower income and retirement earnings," said Erica Williams, an IWPR researcher.

In the SurveyUSA poll, no candidate enjoys a majority among Democratic voters whose top concern is health care, though both Clinton and Obama have offered plans to expand medical insurance coverage. The needs, say advocates, are increasingly dire.

"There is a shortage of doctors in Ohio. Doctors are not in the community," says Gloria Chapmon, state convener for the National Council of Negro Women. "I was somewhere today in the health clinic ... Two or three people had to go to the emergency room over the weekend because they couldn't get a doctor for another four months. You're ill, you need a doctor now -- not four months from now."

Reggie Royston is a feature writer for the Maynard Institute. He has written extensively about race and culture.