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| Sen. Barack Obama and Sen. Hillary Clinton debate on Thursday, Feb. 21, in Austin, Texas, broadcast on CNN. |
By Kara Andrade
Unlike previous election years, when Texas has been an afterthought by the time its presidential primary occurred, the state looks likely to have an important role in determining at least the Democratic nominee this year. "We all woke up the day after Super Tuesday and we were like, 'Holy cow, we're in play!'" says Harvey Kronberg of Quorum Report, a nonpartisan online daily focused on Texas politics and government.
With Hillary Clinton slightly ahead of Barack Obama in most polls, it's hard to predict whether Clinton will hold on or Obama will close the gap in the state. Pollster (and its blog) this week pointed out the volatility of the Texas electorate and cited findings that "the Obama-Clinton vote preference show large variation on five critical variables: race and ethnicity, gender, age, socio-economic status and party affiliation (percent non-Democratic on party ID)." SurveyUSA has produced a graph indicating a tie could occur if "undecided" and "other" voters swing to Obama.
Pollster recaps five polls concluded the week of Feb. 17 that indicate a close race between the two Democrats. Clinton led in four surveys, by one to five percentage points. Obama was ahead, by a single point, in one poll and appeared to be closing in. Those results are within the surveys' margins of error. The five polls found John McCain pulling away from Mike Huckabee, with a lead ranging from nine to 25 points. Four of the polls showed McCain at or above 50 percent.
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One of the main findings Pollster identifies in a bipartisan survey done by Hamilton (Democratic) and Public Opinion Strategies (Republican), and another by American Research Group, is Clinton's roughly 2-to-1 lead among Texas Latino Democrats, comparable to her showing in other states with large Hispanic populations.
So perhaps Latinos will save Hillary Clinton. An article in the Houston Chronicle describes the party's effort to lure Hispanic voters, citing a sign in south Texas: "Hillary First Latina President."
The uncertainty about what Latino voters will do is not new. In every election cycle, a lot of energy goes into projecting the strength of "the Latino vote" and forecasting the impact of the growth in the population and the degree of its political engagement.
"Everyone is waiting for the sleeping giant to wake up and vote," says Daron Shaw, an associate professor of government at the University of Texas at Austin.
"There are so many new voters involved, and minorities are so hard to poll, that I think this is overly simplistic," Kronberg says. "To think of Democratic-voting Hispanics as homogenous is wrong."
For many Latinos, the Clinton name is a well-known brand that has been around for the past 16 years.
"Latinos in Texas are more familiar with Hillary Clinton because of her connection to the community, not because we're racist and would not vote for Obama," says Hector Flores of Dallas, past national president of the League of United Latin American Citizens. Within his own family, Flores sees a generational divide: His children support Obama, while he and his wife favor Clinton.
Most analysts expect the majority of Latinos to vote for Clinton, and most African-Americans to vote for Obama. That means the decisive battle could be over college students and women voters. Also, the national trend in white voter support for Obama continues to rise, to 40 percent during Feb. 13-17 from 36 percent during Feb. 5-9, according to the Gallup Poll. Clinton may be in trouble in Texas.
Since 35.7 percent of 23.5 million Texans are of Latino or Hispanic origin, according to a Census estimate in 2006, their vote could be formidable if they go to the polls in big numbers. Despite the poll findings, Shaw is skeptical of Clinton's chances because, often, "When the Latino voter becomes engaged, it's the news of the day, and Obama is the new thing."
The emerging professional class of Latinos will be important, Kronberg says. "When you think about Latinos in Texas, you have a huge working-class population, but you have an emerging professional class," he says. "This is typically a whole class of folks from 20 to 40 years old who are the first high-school-educated in their family, the first college-educated, to go to some kind of profession. I think the more upwardly mobile, the further along the economic path, the more independent the Latino voter will be."
But not many will vote in the Republican primary, get-out-the-vote organizers predict, mainly because of the anti-immigration sentiment that prevails within the party, not because of individual Republican candidates.
SurveyUSA points out that among anti-abortion voters, those who attend religious services regularly and conservatives, McCain leads, not Huckabee. "Only among voters focused on immigration, and among the youngest voters, does Huckabee lead. Among women, McCain and Huckabee tie," the polling firm notes.
"The home-schoolers, Baptist ministers and religious communities are supportive of Huckabee," Shaw says. "If lots of Republicans go vote, I wouldn't be surprised if Huckabee gives McCain a run for his money."
SurveyUSA has done a detailed poll about the major issues for Republican voters: the economy, the environment, health, Iraq, terrorists, education and immigration.
While McCain doesn't have the same appeal for Latinos that George Bush had because of his outreach, ability to speak Spanish and cadre of Latino advisers, some political analysts think that McCain has more potential to attract Hispanic voters in the general election than Huckabee.
Then there's the immigration issue again, specifically illegal immigration and the border fence. There are wide gaps in public opinion in different parts of the state.
In some areas of south Texas, there is strong opposition to a fence along the border with Mexico, but farther north there is more of an anti-immigrant backlash, says Paul K. Harral, editor of the editorial page at the Fort Worth Star-Telegram.
Flores says the immigration issue has swelled into "a total disrespect that has reached a frenzy, a hate, that has been drawn up and goes out toward anyone that looks Latino or any immigrant." Candidates who advocate hard anti-immigration policies, he predicts, will get nowhere near the final election. Huckabee, with his "No Amnesty" pledge, could be an exception. McCain's less conservative stance on immigration, to provide "a pathway to citizenship" that has changed to "secure the border first," has confused many Latino and Hispanic voters.
Immigration is proving to be more of a wedge issue than a magnet issue, Shaw says, and it won't necessarily determine how voters cast their ballots.
Key issues for Democrats are the economy, the environment, health care, Iraq, terrorists, education (particularly high dropout rates and tight local funding for schools) and immigration.
For many Texans, this election isn't significant just because of Texas' role in it, but because the leading candidates reflect the diversity of America more than ever before.
"You have an older white hero, a maverick Republican, who nobody has a doubt about his love for America; you have a white female, one of the brightest minds in our country, a former White House first lady, also a senator; and an up-and-coming bright African-American star. What more can America ask for in terms of candidates? It's the American dream personified," Flores says.
Related Links:
Houston Chronicle
Fort Worth Star-Telegram
Quorum Report
League of Women Voters has a bilingual voter guide.
Southwest Voter Registration Education Project tracks public opinion trends in the Hispanic community.
Texas Secretary of State posts early voting tabulations.
Texas Lyceum Poll has information about public opinions in Texas.
Blogs:
Election Inspection
Beltway Confidential
Latinos For Texas
Dos Centavos
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